First Half Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest first-half goal probability — Sunday 28 September 2025
First half goals (over 0.5) lands when at least one goal goes in before the break. Our prediction model scales each fixture's full-match expected goals by the share of goals its league actually scores in the first half, measured from recent results. Only fixtures with a 75%+ chance of a first-half goal are shown.
14 matches cleared our threshold on Sunday 28 September 2025. York United vs Valour led the list at 85% in the Canadian Premier League. The shortlist runs from 85% down to 76%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
Bundesliga supplies three of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.
Of the 14 fixtures on this list that have since finished, ten landed the first half goals market — 71%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Canadian Premier League · Canada
85%
Bundesliga · Germany
85%
Bundesliga · Germany
83%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
81%
Eredivisie · Netherlands
80%
La Liga · Spain
78%
Super League · Switzerland
78%
Eredivisie · Netherlands
78%
Bundesliga · Austria
78%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
78%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
78%
Eredivisie · Netherlands
77%
Eliteserien · Norway
77%
Bundesliga · Germany
76%
Showing top 14 fixtures by first-half goal probability (a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
First Half Goals — common questions
What does the First Half Goals market mean?
First Half Goals settles on whether a match produces at least one goal before half-time. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate first half goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The first-half goal probability shown here is the probability of at least one goal before half-time — the full-match expected goals scaled by the share of goals each league actually produces in the first half, measured from its recent results. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for First Half Goals on Sunday 28 September 2025?
14 fixtures met the criteria, led by York United vs Valour at 85% first-half goal probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these first half goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.