FK Jablonec 2-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav meet at Stadion Strelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Mlada Boleslav have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. FK Jablonec's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Mlada Boleslav's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: FK Jablonec 2W, Mlada Boleslav 4W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 44% versus Mlada Boleslav 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 49% | Mlada Boleslav 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.08 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.199 / defence 0.889 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.273 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.265. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Mlada Boleslav have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 FK Jablonec games / 38 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 51% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 25%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Mlada Boleslav 4.00. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Mlada Boleslav lead the H2H ledger, but FK Jablonec carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Mlada Boleslav 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 51% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG FK Jablonec 2.08 / Mlada Boleslav 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.199 / def 0.889 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.273 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Mlada Boleslav xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
FK Jablonec 2 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 51% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (8 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 4W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.27x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.13
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.51
1.43
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
12%
8.02
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
3%
32.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.43 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 24W 9D 10L from 43 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 20L across 43 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mlada Boleslav heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 12W 5D 3L from 20 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 6W 3D 11L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.47 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 60%.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 24W 9D 10L in their last 43 games (1.88 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.05 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.05 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 45%, Mlada Boleslav 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for FK Jablonec and 70% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of FK Jablonec's games and 70% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of FK Jablonec's matches and 70% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Mlada Boleslav 2-0 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.08 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.43 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.20 / defence 0.89 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.27 / defence 1.31, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 51% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 25%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 49%, Mlada Boleslav 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.