IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 25 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Mjallby AIF to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna at Grimsta IP this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mjallby AIF are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IF Brommapojkarna, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Brommapojkarna 57% and Mjallby AIF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 57% | Mjallby AIF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.29 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.279 / defence 1.297 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.221 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.361. IF Brommapojkarna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 IF Brommapojkarna games / 54 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 57%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Mjallby AIF 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 50% | Mjallby AIF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.29 / Mjallby AIF 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.279 / def 1.297 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.221 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Mjallby AIF xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 22% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF?
Record (5 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 2W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
22%
4.47
21%
4.86
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.45
2.15
Mjallby AIF xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
12%
8.63
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
3%
38.57
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 2.15 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 17W 12D 25L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF's form line: 31W 14D 9L from 54 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mjallby AIF are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Brommapojkarna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 1.12 PPG from 26 outings (8W 5D 13L).
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 13W 5D 8L from 26 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.63 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 12D 25L in their last 54 games (1.17 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 31W 14D 9L in their last 54 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.12 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Mjallby AIF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 54%, Mjallby AIF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for IF Brommapojkarna and 62% for Mjallby AIF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 62% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 62% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.29 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.15 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.28 / defence 1.30 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.22 / defence 0.72, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 21% | Mjallby AIF 57%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 57%, Mjallby AIF 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.