SC Freiburg 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 47%, yet in-form SC Freiburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees 1899 Hoffenheim travel to Europa-Park-Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Europa-Park-Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Europa-Park-Stadion this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SC Freiburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: SC Freiburg have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while 1899 Hoffenheim have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 58% and 1899 Hoffenheim 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 71% | 1899 Hoffenheim 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.84 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.050 / defence 1.069 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.229 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.686. 1899 Hoffenheim have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 2.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 SC Freiburg games / 38 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 20% | 1899 Hoffenheim 47%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.03 | Draw 5.00 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.13. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 2.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.06 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 20% | 1899 Hoffenheim 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG SC Freiburg 1.84 / 1899 Hoffenheim 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.050 / def 1.069 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.229 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.686 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
2.21
1899 Hoffenheim xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 33% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 47% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (8 meetings): SC Freiburg 5W | Draws 2 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.05) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 2.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
33%
3.05
20%
4.94
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
4.06
2.21
1899 Hoffenheim xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
3.99
Clean Sheet
11%
9.16
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
4%
27.97
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 2.21 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 18W 7D 13L from 38 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 18L across 38 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1899 Hoffenheim heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 10W 3D 6L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.42 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 71%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 18W 7D 13L in their last 38 games (1.61 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.74 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.11 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 74%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 84% for SC Freiburg and 63% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of SC Freiburg's games and 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 84% of SC Freiburg's matches and 63% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.84 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 2.21 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.23 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 20% | 1899 Hoffenheim 47%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 71%, 1899 Hoffenheim 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.