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Poisson rates Teplice at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Pardubice encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Teplice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech than their overall form suggests.

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Teplice against 0.60 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Teplice, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Pardubice — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 3–0 with Teplice winning.

The historical record gives Teplice a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Teplice — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Pardubice — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Pardubice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 48% | Pardubice 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.77 xG and Pardubice 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.026 / defence 1.097 | Pardubice attack 1.019 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.285. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Teplice games / 38 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 30% | Pardubice 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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