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First Half Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest first-half goal probability — Saturday 16 September 2023

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First half goals (over 0.5) lands when at least one goal goes in before the break. Our prediction model scales each fixture's full-match expected goals by the share of goals its league actually scores in the first half, measured from recent results. Only fixtures with a 75%+ chance of a first-half goal are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Saturday 16 September 2023. Wrexham vs Grimsby led the list at 85% in the League Two. The shortlist runs from 85% down to 76%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

Bundesliga supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 17 landed the first half goals market — 85%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League Two · England 85%

✓ Over 2.5 80% BTTS Yes 78%

Bundesliga · Germany 85%

✓ Over 2.5 77% BTTS Yes 69%

League Two · England 83%

Over 2.5 76% BTTS Yes 70%

Super League · China 83%

✓ Over 2.5 75% ✓ BTTS Yes 59%

Bundesliga · Germany 82%

✓ Over 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS Yes 69%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 81%

✓ Over 2.5 73% ✓ BTTS Yes 72%

Allsvenskan · Sweden 80%

Over 2.5 69% BTTS Yes 64%

Bundesliga · Austria 79%

Over 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS Yes 69%

Ligue 1 · France 79%

✓ Over 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS Yes 63%

#10

Premier League · England 79%

Over 2.5 65% BTTS Yes 62%

#11

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia 79%

✓ Over 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS Yes 59%

#12

Czech Liga · Czech-Republic 78%

✓ Over 2.5 68% ✓ BTTS Yes 56%

#13

Eredivisie · Netherlands 78%

✓ Over 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS Yes 65%

#14

League Two · England 77%

✓ Over 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS Yes 66%

#15

Premier League · England 77%

✓ Over 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS Yes 64%

#16

Bundesliga · Germany 77%

✓ Over 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS Yes 64%

#17

Serie B · Italy 77%

Over 2.5 61% BTTS Yes 64%

#18

Bundesliga · Germany 77%

✓ Over 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS Yes 64%

#19

2. Bundesliga · Germany 76%

✓ Over 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS Yes 57%

#20

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium 76%

Over 2.5 61% BTTS Yes 63%

Showing top 20 fixtures by first-half goal probability (a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Over 1.5 Goals Half Time / Full Time Over 2.5 Goals Goal Fest

Predictions by country

UK Football Predictions

Spanish Football Predictions

Italian Football Predictions

German Football Predictions

French Football Predictions

Dutch Football Predictions

Portuguese Football Predictions

First Half Goals — common questions

What does the First Half Goals market mean?

First Half Goals settles on whether a match produces at least one goal before half-time. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate first half goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The first-half goal probability shown here is the probability of at least one goal before half-time — the full-match expected goals scaled by the share of goals each league actually produces in the first half, measured from its recent results. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for First Half Goals on Saturday 16 September 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Wrexham vs Grimsby at 85% first-half goal probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 75% or higher chance of a first-half goal, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these first half goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.