FC BW Linz 1-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hofmann Personal Stadion plays host to FC BW Linz versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 0.67 PPG across 6 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 1D 4L. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.00 conceded. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC BW Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, SCR Altach are the stronger side — 0.53 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 67% versus SCR Altach 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC BW Linz 83% | SCR Altach 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.35 xG and SCR Altach 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.947 / defence 1.554 | SCR Altach attack 0.953 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.521. Data: 6 FC BW Linz games / 28 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 25% | SCR Altach 55%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | SCR Altach 1.82. The model has a clear lean to SCR Altach (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC BW Linz 67% | SCR Altach 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 25% | SCR Altach 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG FC BW Linz 1.35 / SCR Altach 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.947 / def 1.554 | SCR Altach attack 0.953 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
2.25
SCR Altach xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz 1 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 20% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC BW Linz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.95x) against FC BW Linz's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
These ratings are built from 6/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
20%
5.07
25%
4.02
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
3.60
2.25
SCR Altach xG
5.07
20%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
11%
9.51
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
2%
48.18
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 2.25 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 1W 1D 4L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC BW Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SCR Altach's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SCR Altach are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Attack vs Defence
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC BW Linz have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have FC BW Linz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
3
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 4, SCR Altach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 67%, SCR Altach 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC BW Linz and 50% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 33%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 33% of games; SCR Altach in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 33% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC BW Linz's matches and 50% of SCR Altach's.
Do FC BW Linz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC BW Linz and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as FC BW Linz and SCR Altach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.35 xG and SCR Altach 2.25 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.95 / defence 1.55 against SCR Altach attack 0.95 / defence 1.14, drawn from 6/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 25% | SCR Altach 55%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 83%, SCR Altach 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SCR Altach arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC BW Linz conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.