Union St. Gilloise 0-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genk — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Genk have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Union St. Gilloise are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union St. Gilloise register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Genk in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Genk in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 69% and Genk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union St. Gilloise 67% | Genk 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.68 xG and Genk 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.396 / defence 0.944 | Genk attack 1.238 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.276. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Genk's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Genk have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Union St. Gilloise games / 39 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 42% | Draw 23% | Genk 34%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Genk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 70% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 42% | Draw 23% | Genk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.68 / Genk 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.396 / def 0.944 | Genk attack 1.238 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Genk xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 2 Genk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 42% chance of winning, Genk a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Genk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
42%
2.37
23%
4.26
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.17
1.49
Genk xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.49 for Genk, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 45 games, going 28W 9D 8L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genk sit at 2.02 PPG from 45 outings (27W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 2.07 PPG, Genk on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 15W 3D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.86 points per game from 22 outings (12W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.09 scored and 1.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Genk in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 9D 8L in their last 45 games (2.07 PPG), while Genk have gone 27W 10D 8L in their last 45 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Genk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.18 PPG; Genk away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Genk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Genk specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 64%, Genk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Union St. Gilloise and 68% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 64% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 68% of Genk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Genk tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Genk in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union St. Gilloise.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Union St. Gilloise 0-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.68 xG and Genk 1.49 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.40 / defence 0.94 against Genk attack 1.24 / defence 0.77, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 42% | Draw 23% | Genk 34%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 67%, Genk 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.07 PPG, Genk 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.