FSV Mainz 05 1-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 54%, yet in-form VfB Stuttgart provide a compelling counter-argument — this FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
FSV Mainz 05's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FSV Mainz 05 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, VfB Stuttgart have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfB Stuttgart are 1.40 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 over their recent games (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 90% of VfB Stuttgart's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 2 for VfB Stuttgart and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended FSV Mainz 05 1–4 VfB Stuttgart — a VfB Stuttgart win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 65% and VfB Stuttgart 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FSV Mainz 05 65% | VfB Stuttgart 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FSV Mainz 05 surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while VfB Stuttgart have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 2.21 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.920 / defence 1.023 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.985 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.967 / away 1.438. VfB Stuttgart's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FSV Mainz 05's projected output up. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 37 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 37.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 54% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 24%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.86 | Draw 4.51 | VfB Stuttgart 4.16. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfB Stuttgart (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 80% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 54% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG FSV Mainz 05 2.21 / VfB Stuttgart 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.920 / def 1.023 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.985 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.967 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.45
VfB Stuttgart xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart FAQs
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 54% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.92) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.98x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from FSV Mainz 05's last 37 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.51
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.65
1.45
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
3%
37.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.45 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 11D 14L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.16 PPG from 37 outings (11W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.16 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 6W 7D 5L across their last 18 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 18 away games (3W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.59 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 68%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05 (Home) vs VfB Stuttgart (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart Form FAQs
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.39 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won FSV Mainz 05 1-4 VfB Stuttgart on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FSV Mainz 05, 78% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for FSV Mainz 05 and 78% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 78% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 78% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 83% of VfB Stuttgart's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FSV Mainz 05 1-3 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 2.21 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.45 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 54% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 24%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a VfB Stuttgart win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 65%, VfB Stuttgart 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.27 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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