RB Leipzig 3-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg at Leipzig Stadium in Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Augsburg away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, RB Leipzig have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from RB Leipzig's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for RB Leipzig, 0 for FC Augsburg and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended RB Leipzig 3–2 FC Augsburg — a RB Leipzig win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 57% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 70% | FC Augsburg 60%). Note also that FC Augsburg surrender HT leads in 80% of cases while RB Leipzig recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.76 xG and FC Augsburg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.244 / defence 0.937 | FC Augsburg attack 0.967 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.967 / away 1.438. Data: built from RB Leipzig's last 37 games and FC Augsburg's last 37.
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 67% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 15%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.49 | Draw 5.68 | FC Augsburg 6.64. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (67%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.76 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (RB Leipzig's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RB Leipzig 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Leipzig Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 67% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG RB Leipzig 2.76 / FC Augsburg 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.244 / def 0.937 | FC Augsburg attack 0.967 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.967 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC Augsburg xG
69%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Leipzig Stadium.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig 3 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Leipzig Stadium.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 67% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.76. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RB Leipzig's last 37 games and FC Augsburg's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.68
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
4.06
1.30
FC Augsburg xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
6%
15.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
1%
105.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.30 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig come into this having played 37 games, going 22W 6D 9L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 0.97 PPG from 37 outings (9W 9D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Leipzig's home form reads 14W 2D 2L across their last 18 home games, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — RB Leipzig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 18 away games (3W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.32 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 65%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
RB Leipzig (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Leipzig
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 22W 6D 9L in their last 37 games (1.95 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or FC Augsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.44 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won FC Augsburg 0-6 RB Leipzig.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 6W 0D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
RB Leipzig
3
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Leipzig have won 7, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: RB Leipzig 5-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — RB Leipzig at 61%, FC Augsburg at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for RB Leipzig and 72% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of RB Leipzig's games and 78% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of RB Leipzig's matches and 72% of FC Augsburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 89% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat FC Augsburg 3-0 at Leipzig Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.76 xG and FC Augsburg 1.30 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.24 / defence 0.94 against FC Augsburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 67% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 15%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 70%, FC Augsburg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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