Double Chance Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest double chance probability — Sunday 4 January 2026
Double Chance covers two of the three results: the selected side wins or the match is drawn. Our prediction model adds the side's win probability to the draw probability, so only a defeat loses. Only selections at 75%+ probability are shown.
20 fixtures cleared the bar on Sunday 4 January 2026. Marseille vs Nantes (Marseille or draw) sits top on 89% in the Ligue 1. The shortlist runs from 89% down to 76%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
Ligue 1 supplies three of the top 10, so the day's profile is concentrated rather than spread evenly.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 15 landed the double chance market — 75%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Ligue 1 · France
Marseille or draw
89%
Ligue 1 · France
Paris Saint Germain or draw
89%
Ligue 1 · France
Lorient or draw
87%
La Liga · Spain
Alaves or draw
86%
League One · England
Bolton or draw
86%
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw
84%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
FC Porto or draw
84%
League One · England
Huddersfield or draw
83%
Premier League · England
Manchester City or draw
81%
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw
81%
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
NEOM or draw
80%
League One · England
Wycombe or draw
79%
League One · England
Blackpool or draw
79%
La Liga · Spain
Sevilla or draw
78%
Premier League · England
Tottenham or draw
77%
Championship · England
QPR or draw
77%
League One · England
Burton Albion or draw
76%
Ligue 1 · France
Stade Brestois 29 or draw
76%
La Liga · Spain
Mallorca or draw
76%
League Two · England
Cheltenham or draw
76%
Showing top 20 fixtures by double chance probability (a 75% or higher double chance probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Double Chance — common questions
What does the Double Chance market mean?
Double Chance settles on whether a match avoids defeat for the selected side — a win or a draw both count. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate double chance probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The double chance probability shown here is the selected side's win probability plus the draw probability, so only a defeat loses. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Double Chance on Sunday 4 January 2026?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Marseille vs Nantes (Marseille or draw) at 89% double chance probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 75% or higher double chance probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these double chance predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.