Sevilla 0-3 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sevilla welcome Levante to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Sevilla have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Levante — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levante have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sevilla at 1.00 PPG versus Levante's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sevilla, 0 for Levante and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Sevilla winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Levante trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 56% versus Levante 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 62% | Levante 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.71 xG and Levante 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.113 / defence 1.102 | Levante attack 0.859 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.091. Data: 55 Sevilla games / 16 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 52% | Draw 26% | Levante 22%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Levante 4.55. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sevilla 50% | Levante 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 52% | Draw 26% | Levante 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Sevilla 1.71 / Levante 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.113 / def 1.102 | Levante attack 0.859 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Levante xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Levante kick off?
Sevilla vs Levante kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Levante?
Sevilla 0 - 3 Levante.
Where is Sevilla vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Levante part of?
Sevilla vs Levante is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 52% chance of winning, Levante a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sevilla and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Levante?
Record (2 meetings): Sevilla 2W | Draws 0 | Levante 0W.
What form are Sevilla and Levante in?
Sevilla (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Levante (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sevilla's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.87
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.74
1.03
Levante xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
4%
25.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.03 for Levante, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sevilla come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 2D 8L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.62 PPG from 16 outings (2W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sevilla's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.06 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Levante in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 6W 2D 8L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Levante have gone 2W 4D 10L in their last 16 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Levante away?
Sevilla's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.25 PPG; Levante away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Levante have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2026, when Levante won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sevilla's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sevilla
0
Draws
2
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Levante have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Levante 2-0 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 62%, Levante 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Sevilla) and 25% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Sevilla's recent matches and 38% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Sevilla's recent games and 25% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Levante tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Levante in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levante run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sevilla.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Sevilla 0-3 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.71 xG and Levante 1.03 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sevilla fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Levante outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Levante attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 52% | Draw 26% | Levante 22%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Levante win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 62%, Levante 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Levante's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.