Plymouth 3-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 25 as Plymouth welcome Burton Albion to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.20 (Burton Albion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plymouth have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Burton Albion have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 4–0 with Plymouth winning.
The historical record gives Plymouth a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Burton Albion trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Burton Albion 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Burton Albion 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.92 xG and Burton Albion 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.659 / defence 1.411 | Burton Albion attack 0.924 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.120. Plymouth's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Plymouth games / 69 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 24% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 50%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 2.00. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 50% | Burton Albion 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 24% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Plymouth 0.92 / Burton Albion 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.659 / def 1.411 | Burton Albion attack 0.924 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Burton Albion xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Burton Albion kick off?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Plymouth 3 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Plymouth vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Burton Albion part of?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 24% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Plymouth and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
Record (5 meetings): Plymouth 3W | Draws 2 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in?
Plymouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
24%
4.23
27%
3.77
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.37
1.46
Burton Albion xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
18.20
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.6 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.46 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 19W 16D 34L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 18W 20D 31L from 69 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.06 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (12W 8D 14L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 8W 12D 14L from 34 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.04 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 69 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 19W 16D 34L in their last 69 games (1.06 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 18W 20D 31L in their last 69 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Burton Albion away?
Plymouth's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.29 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Plymouth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Plymouth
2
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Burton Albion have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Plymouth 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 68%, Burton Albion 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Plymouth) and 44% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 32%; Burton Albion in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Plymouth's games and 47% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Plymouth's recent games and 44% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Burton Albion 3-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.92 xG and Burton Albion 1.46 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.66 / defence 1.41 against Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 24% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 50%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Burton Albion 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Burton Albion's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.06 PPG, Burton Albion 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.