🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 25 as Plymouth welcome Burton Albion to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Plymouth — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Plymouth at Home Park this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.20 (Burton Albion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Plymouth have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Burton Albion have managed just 0 wins.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 4–0 with Plymouth winning.

The historical record gives Plymouth a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Plymouth trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Burton Albion trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Burton Albion 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Burton Albion 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.92 xG and Burton Albion 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.659 / defence 1.411 | Burton Albion attack 0.924 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.120. Plymouth's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Plymouth games / 69 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Plymouth 24% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 50%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 2.00. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 50% | Burton Albion 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights