Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to Stade Francis-Le Blé to face Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Francis-Le Blé. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stade Brestois 29 are significantly better at Stade Francis-Le Blé than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Stade Brestois 29. A 0.60 PPG lead over Auxerre (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 1 for Auxerre and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 54% versus Auxerre 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 62% | Auxerre 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.50 xG and Auxerre 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.882 / defence 0.993 | Auxerre attack 0.795 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.199. Data: 50 Stade Brestois 29 games / 50 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 24%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Auxerre 4.17. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.50 / Auxerre 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.882 / def 0.993 | Auxerre attack 0.795 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Auxerre xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Stade Brestois 29 2 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 50% chance of winning, Auxerre a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre?
Record (4 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.80x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.84
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.45
0.95
Auxerre xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.95 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 20W 9D 21L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 14W 12D 24L from 50 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.08 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.88 PPG from 24 outings (13W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Stade Brestois 29 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 5D 15L from 24 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.24 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 20W 9D 21L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Auxerre away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.88 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
2
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Auxerre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 50%, Auxerre 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stade Brestois 29) and 58% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Auxerre in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 58% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Stade Brestois 29's matches and 58% of Auxerre's.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Auxerre tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Auxerre 2-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.50 xG and Auxerre 0.95 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Auxerre attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 50% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 24%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 62%, Auxerre 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.38 PPG, Auxerre 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.