🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Auxerre encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Auxerre make the trip to Stade Francis-Le Blé to face Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Form

Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stade Brestois 29's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Francis-Le Blé this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Francis-Le Blé. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stade Brestois 29 are significantly better at Stade Francis-Le Blé than their overall form suggests.

Auxerre have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Stade Brestois 29. A 0.60 PPG lead over Auxerre (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 1 for Auxerre and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 54% versus Auxerre 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 62% | Auxerre 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.50 xG and Auxerre 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.882 / defence 0.993 | Auxerre attack 0.795 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.199. Data: 50 Stade Brestois 29 games / 50 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 24%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Auxerre 4.17. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights