Double Chance Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest double chance probability — Thursday 28 September 2023
Double Chance covers two of the three results: the selected side wins or the match is drawn. Our prediction model adds the side's win probability to the draw probability, so only a defeat loses. Only selections at 75%+ probability are shown.
Five fixtures cleared the bar on Thursday 28 September 2023. The strongest reading belongs to AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles (AZ Alkmaar or draw) at 91% in the Eredivisie. The shortlist runs from 91% down to 76%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
Of the five fixtures on this list that have since finished, five landed the double chance market — 100%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Eredivisie · Netherlands
AZ Alkmaar or draw
91%
Superettan · Sweden
Gais or draw
89%
Super League 1 · Greece
AEK Athens FC or draw
82%
La Liga · Spain
Celta Vigo or draw
79%
Superettan · Sweden
Orebro SK or draw
76%
Showing top 5 fixtures by double chance probability (a 75% or higher double chance probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsDouble Chance — common questions
What does the Double Chance market mean?
Double Chance settles on whether a match avoids defeat for the selected side — a win or a draw both count. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate double chance probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The double chance probability shown here is the selected side's win probability plus the draw probability, so only a defeat loses. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Double Chance on Thursday 28 September 2023?
five fixtures met the criteria, led by AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles (AZ Alkmaar or draw) at 91% double chance probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 75% or higher double chance probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these double chance predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.