Celta Vigo 1-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Celta Vigo (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 3L across 3 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.00 for Alaves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Celta Vigo lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 4–0 with Celta Vigo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Celta Vigo 50% | Alaves 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 33% | Alaves 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.06 xG and Alaves 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.627 / defence 0.942 | Alaves attack 0.546 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.211. Celta Vigo's attack strength of 0.627 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Celta Vigo games / 6 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 45% | Draw 34% | Alaves 21%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Alaves 4.76. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 40% | Alaves 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 45% | Draw 34% | Alaves 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Celta Vigo 1.06 / Alaves 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.627 / def 0.942 | Alaves attack 0.546 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Alaves xG
31%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Alaves kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Celta Vigo 1 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Alaves part of?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 45% chance of winning, Alaves a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Celta Vigo and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
Record (2 meetings): Celta Vigo 2W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Alaves in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Alaves (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.63x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.55x) against Celta Vigo's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
45%
2.20
34%
2.98
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
1.69
0.62
Alaves xG
2.20
45%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.26
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.7 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.62 for Alaves, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 1D 4L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.00 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Celta Vigo's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.83 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 17%.
Last 6 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Alaves in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Alaves have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Alaves away?
Celta Vigo's home record (0.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 0.00 PPG; Alaves away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-0 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
2
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Alaves have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Celta Vigo) and 0% (Alaves) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Celta Vigo and 0% for Alaves.
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 100% of games; Alaves in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 0% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 0% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Alaves tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Alaves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo and Alaves finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.06 xG and Alaves 0.62 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.63 / defence 0.94 against Alaves attack 0.55 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 45% | Draw 34% | Alaves 21%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 33%, Alaves 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 0.67 PPG, Alaves 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.