Orebro SK 5-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orebro SK face Utsikten.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Utsikten at Behrn Arena in Superettan (matchday 24). Kick-off is Thursday 28 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Orebro SK have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Orebro SK's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 6D 0L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Utsikten stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Utsikten's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orebro SK at 1.40 PPG versus Utsikten's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for Utsikten and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 May 2023, ended Orebro SK 1–2 Utsikten — a Utsikten win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Utsikten in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 49% | Utsikten 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.29 xG and Utsikten 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.031 / defence 0.813 | Utsikten attack 0.865 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.273. Utsikten bring a tight defence (rating 0.797, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Orebro SK's projected output down. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 53 games and Utsikten's last 53.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 44% | Draw 32% | Utsikten 24%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.27 | Draw 3.17 | Utsikten 4.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Orebro SK's last 10 home games and Utsikten's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 40% (last 10 home games) | Utsikten 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, matchday 24 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 28 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 44% | Draw 32% | Utsikten 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Orebro SK 1.29 / Utsikten 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.031 / def 0.813 | Utsikten attack 0.865 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Utsikten xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orebro SK vs Utsikten FAQs
What time does Orebro SK vs Utsikten kick off?
Orebro SK vs Utsikten kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Orebro SK 5 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Orebro SK vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Utsikten part of?
Orebro SK vs Utsikten is a Superettan fixture (matchday 24) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 44% chance of winning, Utsikten a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Orebro SK and Utsikten will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Orebro SK vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Orebro SK's last 53 games and Utsikten's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.17
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.19
0.90
Utsikten xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orebro SK vs Utsikten Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.90 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 16W 17D 20L from 53 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 18L across 53 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.23 PPG, Utsikten on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 9W 10D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utsikten's away record stands at 12W 3D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.57 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
Orebro SK (Home) vs Utsikten (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orebro SK
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Orebro SK vs Utsikten Form FAQs
What form are Orebro SK and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 16W 17D 20L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 24W 11D 18L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Utsikten away?
Utsikten's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.42 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Utsikten in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 2 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Sep 2023, when Orebro SK won Orebro SK 5-1 Utsikten.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Orebro SK
1
Draws
3
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Orebro SK vs Utsikten H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Utsikten?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Orebro SK have won 4, Utsikten have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Utsikten last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2025: Orebro SK 2-1 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Utsikten?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 38%, Utsikten 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Orebro SK) and 46% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Utsikten in 35%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orebro SK vs Utsikten Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orebro SK and Utsikten matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 42% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Orebro SK and Utsikten matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Orebro SK's recent games and 46% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Utsikten matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 62% of Utsikten's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Utsikten 5-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.29 xG and Utsikten 0.90 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.03 / defence 0.81 against Utsikten attack 0.86 / defence 0.80, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 44% | Draw 32% | Utsikten 24%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 49%, Utsikten 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Utsikten's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.23 PPG, Utsikten 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Utsikten (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.