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Correct Score Predictions

Most likely scoreline for every fixture, from our prediction model β€” Thursday 29 December 2022

The Model Score is the same most-likely scoreline already shown on each fixture's own Predictions tab, from our prediction model. Once a fixture finishes, it's highlighted green if the model score matched the actual result shown above it exactly.

42 matches cleared our threshold on Thursday 29 December 2022. Lorient vs Montpellier led the list at 62% in the Ligue 1. The shortlist runs from 62% down to 25%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

La Liga supplies three of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.

Model output for information only β€” not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Süper Lig Β· Turkey
Sivasspor
1 : 2 FT
Galatasaray
Win 17%
Draw 24%
βœ“ Win 58%
Model Score 0–1 Β· 13%
Süper Lig Β· Turkey
Giresunspor
2 : 1 FT
Gaziantep FK
βœ“ Win 42%
Draw 26%
Win 32%
✓ Over 2.5 54% ✓ BTTS Yes 58%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 12%
Ligue 1 Β· France
Lorient
0 : 2 FT
Montpellier
Win 50%
Draw 24%
Win 27%
Over 2.5 62% BTTS Yes 63%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 10%
La Liga Β· Spain
Girona
2 : 2 FT
Rayo Vallecano
Win 35%
Draw 26%
Win 39%
✓ BTTS Yes 56%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 12%
Super League 1 Β· Greece
Aris Thessalonikis
1 : 0 FT
Panetolikos
βœ“ Win 40%
Draw 34%
Win 26%
BTTS Yes 55%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
Super League 1 Β· Greece
Lamia
1 : 1 FT
PAS Giannina
Win 38%
Draw 35%
Win 27%
✓ Under 2.5 55% ✓ BTTS Yes 53%
✓ Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
Primeira Liga Β· Portugal
GIL Vicente
1 : 0 FT
Santa Clara
βœ“ Win 34%
Draw 33%
Win 33%
✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 66%
Model Score 0–0 Β· 17%
Süper Lig Β· Turkey
Beşiktaş
1 : 0 FT
Adana Demirspor
βœ“ Win 41%
Draw 25%
Win 34%
Over 2.5 58% BTTS Yes 62%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 11%
Championship Β· England
QPR
0 : 3 FT
Luton
Win 39%
Draw 29%
Win 32%
Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 55%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
Ligue 1 Β· France
Reims
3 : 1 FT
Rennes
Win 31%
Draw 29%
Win 41%
Under 2.5 55%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
La Liga Β· Spain
Real Betis
0 : 0 FT
Athletic Club
Win 50%
Draw 24%
Win 26%
Over 2.5 56% BTTS Yes 57%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 11%
League Two Β· England
Crewe
0 : 3 FT
Carlisle
Win 28%
Draw 26%
βœ“ Win 46%
BTTS Yes 54%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 12%
Championship Β· England
Blackburn
1 : 2 FT
Middlesbrough
Win 42%
Draw 24%
Win 34%
✓ Over 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS Yes 62%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 11%
Championship Β· England
Coventry
0 : 0 FT
Cardiff
Win 52%
Draw 26%
Win 23%
✓ Under 2.5 55%
Model Score 1–0 Β· 13%
Championship Β· England
Huddersfield
2 : 0 FT
Rotherham
βœ“ Win 41%
Draw 32%
Win 27%
✓ Under 2.5 73% ✓ BTTS No 65%
Model Score 1–0 Β· 17%
Championship Β· England
Millwall
0 : 0 FT
Bristol City
Win 48%
Draw 26%
Win 26%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 12%
Championship Β· England
Wigan
1 : 4 FT
Sunderland
Win 22%
Draw 26%
βœ“ Win 52%
Under 2.5 56% BTTS No 53%
Model Score 0–1 Β· 13%
League One Β· England
Barnsley
2 : 1 FT
Fleetwood Town
βœ“ Win 38%
Draw 29%
Win 33%
Under 2.5 58%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
League One Β· England
Bristol Rovers
3 : 4 FT
Exeter City
Win 40%
Draw 26%
Win 34%
✓ Over 2.5 54% ✓ BTTS Yes 58%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 12%
League One Β· England
Forest Green
1 : 2 FT
Burton Albion
Win 32%
Draw 27%
βœ“ Win 41%
✓ BTTS Yes 55%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 12%
League One Β· England
Morecambe
2 : 0 FT
Accrington ST
βœ“ Win 40%
Draw 30%
Win 30%
✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 54%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
League One Β· England
Oxford United
3 : 1 FT
Charlton
βœ“ Win 42%
Draw 28%
Win 29%
Under 2.5 55%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
League One Β· England
Peterborough
2 : 0 FT
Milton Keynes Dons
βœ“ Win 39%
Draw 28%
Win 33%
✓ Under 2.5 54%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
League One Β· England
Plymouth
1 : 0 FT
Wycombe
βœ“ Win 45%
Draw 29%
Win 26%
✓ Under 2.5 59% ✓ BTTS No 54%
✓ Model Score 1–0 Β· 13%
League One Β· England
Portsmouth
2 : 2 FT
Ipswich
Win 31%
Draw 27%
Win 42%
✓ BTTS Yes 54%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 12%
League One Β· England
Sheffield Wednesday
2 : 0 FT
Port Vale
βœ“ Win 60%
Draw 24%
Win 16%
Model Score 1–0 Β· 13%
League One Β· England
Shrewsbury
0 : 1 FT
Cheltenham
Win 44%
Draw 31%
Win 24%
✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%
Model Score 1–0 Β· 16%
League Two Β· England
Barrow
1 : 2 FT
Tranmere
Win 42%
Draw 32%
Win 26%
Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 62%
Model Score 1–0 Β· 16%
League Two Β· England
Bradford
1 : 0 FT
Harrogate Town
βœ“ Win 41%
Draw 26%
Win 33%
BTTS Yes 55%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 12%
League Two Β· England
Colchester
1 : 2 FT
AFC Wimbledon
Win 42%
Draw 30%
Win 28%
Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 56%
Model Score 1–0 Β· 14%
League Two Β· England
Grimsby
1 : 4 FT
Salford City
Win 24%
Draw 29%
βœ“ Win 48%
Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 57%
Model Score 0–1 Β· 15%
League Two Β· England
Hartlepool
1 : 2 FT
Mansfield Town
Win 23%
Draw 28%
βœ“ Win 50%
Under 2.5 59% BTTS No 54%
Model Score 0–1 Β· 14%
League Two Β· England
Northampton
1 : 2 FT
Swindon Town
Win 41%
Draw 29%
Win 30%
Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 53%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
League Two Β· England
Sutton Utd
2 : 1 FT
Gillingham
βœ“ Win 54%
Draw 31%
Win 15%
Under 2.5 75% BTTS No 72% Sutton Utd Clean Sheet 60%
Model Score 1–0 Β· 22%
League Two Β· England
Walsall
0 : 2 FT
Stockport County
Win 39%
Draw 28%
Win 33%
✓ Under 2.5 53%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
League Two Β· England
Doncaster
4 : 3 FT
Rochdale
βœ“ Win 37%
Draw 31%
Win 32%
Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 57%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 13%
Championship Β· England
West Brom
2 : 0 FT
Preston
Win 35%
Draw 26%
Win 38%
BTTS Yes 53%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 12%
Ligue 1 Β· France
Nice
0 : 0 FT
Lens
Win 27%
Draw 32%
Win 41%
✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%
Model Score 0–1 Β· 15%
Ligue 1 Β· France
Marseille
6 : 1 FT
Toulouse
βœ“ Win 54%
Draw 26%
Win 20%
Model Score 1–0 Β· 12%
Championship Β· England
Blackpool
1 : 2 FT
Sheffield Utd
Win 25%
Draw 28%
βœ“ Win 48%
Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 56%
Model Score 0–1 Β· 14%
La Liga Β· Spain
Atletico Madrid
2 : 0 FT
Elche
βœ“ Win 55%
Draw 23%
Win 22%
Over 2.5 57% BTTS Yes 56%
Model Score 1–1 Β· 11%
Primeira Liga Β· Portugal
Sporting CP
3 : 0 FT
Pacos Ferreira
βœ“ Win 68%
Draw 19%
Win 13%
✓ Over 2.5 56%
Model Score 2–0 Β· 12%

Showing 42 of 42 fixtures for the day, in kick-off order. Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Correct Score β€” common questions

What does the Correct Score market mean?

Correct Score settles on whether a match finishes on one exact scoreline. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate correct score probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The most likely scoreline shown here is the single highest-probability cell in the model's full score matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Correct Score on Thursday 29 December 2022?

42 fixtures met the criteria, led by Lorient vs Montpellier at 62% most likely scoreline.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with the model's single most likely scoreline for each fixture, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these correct score predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.