Reims 3-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Rennes at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 29 December 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune II: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rennes — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rennes have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rennes — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Reims register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rennes in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Reims have won 1, Rennes 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 2–3 with Rennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Rennes in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 55% versus Rennes 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 42% | Rennes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.14 xG and Rennes 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.870 / defence 0.940 | Rennes attack 1.033 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.390. Data: 53 Reims games / 53 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 31% | Draw 29% | Rennes 41%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Rennes 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reims 60% | Rennes 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Dec 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 31% | Draw 29% | Rennes 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Reims 1.14 / Rennes 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.870 / def 0.940 | Rennes attack 1.033 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Rennes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Rennes xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Rennes kick off?
Reims vs Rennes kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 29 December 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Rennes?
Reims 3 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Reims vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Rennes part of?
Reims vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 31% chance of winning, Rennes a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Reims and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Rennes?
Record (2 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 0 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Reims and Rennes in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Rennes (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
31%
3.27
29%
3.50
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Reims xG
Total xG
2.49
1.35
Rennes xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Reims and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Reims and 1.35 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reims come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 21D 18L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rennes sit at 1.83 PPG from 53 outings (29W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Reims — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Reims's home form reads 7W 9D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Rennes have taken 1.27 points per game from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 2.13 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Rennes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 14W 21D 18L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Rennes have gone 29W 10D 14L in their last 53 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Rennes away?
Rennes's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.15 PPG; Rennes away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Reims or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rennes in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Rennes runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Reims
0
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Rennes?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 4, Rennes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Rennes 1-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 54%, Rennes 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Reims) and 54% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Reims's games and 73% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Reims's recent games and 54% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Rennes tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rennes in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Rennes 3-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.14 xG and Rennes 1.35 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Rennes attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 31% | Draw 29% | Rennes 41%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 42%, Rennes 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Reims winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Rennes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.