Wigan 1-4 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sunderland (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wigan face Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Sunderland at DW Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 29 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Wigan have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at DW Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Sunderland's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Wigan's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Sunderland have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Wigan's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Sunderland winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sunderland have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Wigan in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 63% versus Sunderland 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 53% | Sunderland 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 0.91 xG and Sunderland 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.723 / defence 1.310 | Sunderland attack 0.996 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.180. Wigan's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Wigan games / 24 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 22% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 52%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Sunderland 1.92. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wigan 60% | Sunderland 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 22% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Wigan 0.91 / Sunderland 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.723 / def 1.310 | Sunderland attack 0.996 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Sunderland xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Sunderland kick off?
Wigan vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 29 December 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Sunderland?
Wigan 1 - 4 Sunderland.
Where is Wigan vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Sunderland part of?
Wigan vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 22% chance of winning, Sunderland a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wigan and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Sunderland?
Record (3 meetings): Wigan 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 3W.
What form are Wigan and Sunderland in?
Wigan (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wigan's attack at 0.72x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
22%
4.48
26%
3.89
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.45
1.54
Sunderland xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
5%
20.88
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Wigan and 1.54 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Wigan have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 33W 17D 20L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland's form line: 33W 20D 17L from 70 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wigan on 1.66 PPG, Sunderland on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (14W 8D 12L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 12W 13D 9L from 34 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.60 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sunderland in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 33W 17D 20L in their last 70 games (1.66 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 33W 20D 17L in their last 70 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Sunderland away?
Wigan's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.47 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Wigan or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sunderland in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wigan and Sunderland runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sunderland go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Sunderland won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wigan's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wigan
0
Draws
4
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Sunderland?
From 4 meetings on record, Wigan have won 0, Sunderland have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2022, when Wigan 1-4 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 62%, Sunderland 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Wigan) and 56% (Sunderland).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Wigan's games and 56% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Wigan's recent games and 56% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Sunderland tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Wigan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Wigan 1-4 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 0.91 xG and Sunderland 1.54 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.72 / defence 1.31 against Sunderland attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 22% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 52%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 53%, Sunderland 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.66 PPG, Sunderland 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.