Forest Green 1-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forest Green vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Bolt New Lawn plays host to Forest Green versus Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Thursday 29 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Forest Green have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Forest Green, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forest Green at The Bolt New Lawn this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Forest Green 0W, Burton Albion 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Forest Green — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 49% versus Burton Albion 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 42% | Burton Albion 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 1.24 xG and Burton Albion 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.715 / defence 1.269 | Burton Albion attack 1.032 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.095. Forest Green's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Forest Green's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Forest Green games / 69 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 32% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 41%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forest Green 30% | Burton Albion 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 32% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Forest Green 1.24 / Burton Albion 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.715 / def 1.269 | Burton Albion attack 1.032 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Burton Albion xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Burton Albion kick off?
Forest Green vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 29 December 2022 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Burton Albion?
Forest Green 1 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Forest Green vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Burton Albion part of?
Forest Green vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 32% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Forest Green and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Forest Green 0W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Forest Green and Burton Albion in?
Forest Green (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Forest Green's attack rating (0.71) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (1.03x) against Forest Green's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 23/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
32%
3.13
27%
3.68
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.67
1.43
Burton Albion xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.43 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Forest Green come into this having played 69 games, going 28W 20D 21L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Forest Green is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.04 PPG from 69 outings (18W 18D 33L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forest Green carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Forest Green's home form reads 18W 4D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.68 points per game from 34 outings (5W 8D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forest Green come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Forest Green are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.17 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 69 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 28W 20D 21L in their last 69 games (1.51 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 18W 18D 33L in their last 69 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Burton Albion away?
Forest Green's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 1.71 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Forest Green or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Forest Green
0
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Burton Albion?
From 2 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 0, Burton Albion have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2022, when Forest Green 1-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Forest Green and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 32%, Burton Albion 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Forest Green) and 53% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Forest Green keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Forest Green have failed to score in 32% of games; Burton Albion in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Forest Green's recent matches and 56% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Forest Green's recent games and 53% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Forest Green 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Forest Green 1-2 at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 1.24 xG and Burton Albion 1.43 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.71 / defence 1.27 against Burton Albion attack 1.03 / defence 1.39, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 32% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 41%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 42%, Burton Albion 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forest Green arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Forest Green (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.