Longford Town 1-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Bishopsgate Stadium to face Longford Town in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 June 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Longford Town 0W, St Patrick's Athl. 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2021, ended 0–3 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.80 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.712 / defence 1.196 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.887 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.315. Longford Town's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Longford Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Longford Town games / 14 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 20% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.00. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jun 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 20% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Longford Town 0.80 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.712 / def 1.196 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.887 / def 1.231 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.40
St Patrick's Athl. xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 12 June 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Longford Town 1 - 3 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 20% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (1 meetings): Longford Town 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 1W.
What form are Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (0.89x) against Longford Town's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
20%
4.89
29%
3.41
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.19
1.40
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.89
20%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
5%
19.77
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 15.6 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.40 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St Patrick's Athl. have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 30 Apr 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Longford Town have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
0
Draws
4
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2021, when Longford Town 1-4 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Longford Town 1-3 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.80 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.40 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.71 / defence 1.20 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 20% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.