Dundalk 1-3 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dundalk at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dundalk host Waterford at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.45 xG and Waterford 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.982 / defence 1.048 | Waterford attack 0.526 / defence 1.601. League average goals — home 0.921 / away 1.272. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.601 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Dundalk games / 14 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 55% | Draw 27% | Waterford 18%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Waterford 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 55% | Draw 27% | Waterford 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Dundalk 1.45 / Waterford 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.982 / def 1.048 | Waterford attack 0.526 / def 1.601 | league avg home 0.921 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Waterford xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Waterford kick off?
Dundalk vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 June 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Dundalk 1 - 3 Waterford.
Where is Dundalk vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Waterford part of?
Dundalk vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 55% chance of winning, Waterford a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dundalk and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Waterford in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.98) and Waterford's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.72
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.15
0.70
Waterford xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
4%
23.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.70 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, Waterford have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Waterford cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Dundalk 1-3 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.45 xG and Waterford 0.70 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Waterford attack 0.53 / defence 1.60, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 55% | Draw 27% | Waterford 18%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.