St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 16 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Sligo Rovers to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 0.92 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.106 / defence 1.002 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.923 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.357. Data: 15 St Patrick's Athl. games / 15 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 26% | Draw 31% | Sligo Rovers 43%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Sligo Rovers 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sligo Rovers at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 26% | Draw 31% | Sligo Rovers 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 0.92 / Sligo Rovers 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.106 / def 1.002 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.923 / def 0.914 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sligo Rovers xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 June 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 26% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
26%
3.83
31%
3.25
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.17
1.25
Sligo Rovers xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.25 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
St Patrick's Athl.
1
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 7, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 2-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 0.92 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.25 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 26% | Draw 31% | Sligo Rovers 43%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.