Dundalk 1-1 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Longford Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Longford Town travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 June 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dundalk, 0 for Longford Town and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.43 xG and Longford Town 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.942 / defence 1.217 | Longford Town attack 0.612 / defence 1.672. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.357. Longford Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.672 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Dundalk games / 15 Longford Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 29% | Longford Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Longford Town 3.85. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 29% | Longford Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Dundalk 1.43 / Longford Town 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.942 / def 1.217 | Longford Town attack 0.612 / def 1.672 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Longford Town xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Longford Town kick off?
Dundalk vs Longford Town kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 June 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Dundalk 1 - 1 Longford Town.
Where is Dundalk vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Longford Town part of?
Dundalk vs Longford Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 46% chance of winning, Longford Town a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dundalk and Longford Town will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Longford Town?
Record (1 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 1 | Longford Town 0W.
What form are Dundalk and Longford Town in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.94x the league average against Longford Town's defence at 1.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.51
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.44
1.01
Longford Town xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.01 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Longford Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dundalk's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Longford Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Longford Town have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Longford Town last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Dundalk 2-0 Longford Town.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dundalk and Longford Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Longford Town finished level at 1-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.43 xG and Longford Town 1.01 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Longford Town attack 0.61 / defence 1.67, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 46% | Draw 29% | Longford Town 26%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.