Derry City 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Bohemians meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 0.90 xG and Bohemians 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.891 / defence 1.302 | Bohemians attack 0.780 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 0.921 / away 1.272. Data: 14 Derry City games / 14 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 26% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 46%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 2.17. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 26% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Derry City 0.90 / Bohemians 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.891 / def 1.302 | Bohemians attack 0.780 / def 1.099 | league avg home 0.921 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bohemians xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Bohemians kick off?
Derry City vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 June 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Derry City 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Derry City vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Bohemians part of?
Derry City vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 26% chance of winning, Bohemians a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Derry City and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.78x) against Derry City's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
26%
3.84
28%
3.52
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.19
1.29
Bohemians xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.4 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Derry City and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Derry City and 1.29 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, Bohemians have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Bohemians?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Derry City and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City and Bohemians finished level at 1-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 0.90 xG and Bohemians 1.29 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.89 / defence 1.30 against Bohemians attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 26% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 46%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.