Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers host Finn Harps at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 0 for Finn Harps and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2021, ended 2–0 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.33 xG and Finn Harps 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.121 / defence 0.983 | Finn Harps attack 0.725 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 0.914 / away 1.314. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Shamrock Rovers games / 14 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 46% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 26%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Finn Harps 3.85. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 46% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.33 / Finn Harps 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.121 / def 0.983 | Finn Harps attack 0.725 / def 1.302 | league avg home 0.914 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Finn Harps xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 11 June 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 1 Finn Harps.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 46% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps?
Record (1 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 1W | Draws 0 | Finn Harps 0W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shamrock Rovers's attack at 1.12x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.51
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.27
0.94
Finn Harps xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
7%
14.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.94 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Shamrock Rovers won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 6, Finn Harps have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Shamrock Rovers 5-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.33 xG and Finn Harps 0.94 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Finn Harps attack 0.72 / defence 1.30, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 46% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 26%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.