Sharjah FC 4-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sharjah FC face Dibba Al-Fujairah.

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Fixture Analysis

Sharjah FC welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Sharjah Stadium in Pro League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Sharjah FC — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 1W 2D 5L from their last 8 away outings — 0.62 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sharjah FC at 1.00 PPG versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Sharjah FC, 0 for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Sharjah FC 3–1 Dibba Al-Fujairah — a Sharjah FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sharjah FC trading profile (last 17 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (last 17 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 53% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 53% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.92 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.993 / defence 1.214 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.620 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.464. Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating of 1.420 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sharjah FC's projected output up. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating of 0.620 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dibba Al-Fujairah's projected output up. Data: built from Sharjah FC's last 43 games and Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 17.

Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 56% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 21%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.77 | Draw 4.53 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.66. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sharjah FC's last 10 home games and Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 8 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sharjah FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Dibba Al-Fujairah 50% (last 8 away games).

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