Al Ain 1-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Ain at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Ain vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Ain and Al Nasr meet at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Ain's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Ain have posted 6W 4D 0L at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
Al Nasr have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al Ain's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Al Nasr's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Ain lead 4W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Ain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Ain 58% and Al Nasr 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Ain 66% | Al Nasr 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.59 xG and Al Nasr 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 1.230 / defence 0.750 | Al Nasr attack 0.937 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.453. Al Ain's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Al Ain games / 41 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Ain 51% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Al Nasr 4.17. Al Ain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Ain as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Ain if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Ain 40% | Al Nasr 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 51% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Ain 1.59 / Al Nasr 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 1.230 / def 0.750 | Al Nasr attack 0.937 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Al Nasr xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al Ain vs Al Nasr kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Al Ain 1 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Al Ain vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Al Nasr part of?
Al Ain vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 51% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Ain and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al Nasr?
Record (8 meetings): Al Ain 4W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 3W.
What form are Al Ain and Al Nasr in?
Al Ain (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Ain's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.94x) against Al Ain's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.99
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Al Ain xG
Total xG
2.61
1.02
Al Nasr xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
5%
20.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.02 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Ain come into this having played 41 games, going 23W 12D 6L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Ain's home form reads 12W 6D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Ain are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.54 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr in 63%.
Defensively: Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 23W 12D 6L in their last 41 games (1.98 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Ain's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 2.10 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Al Ain or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Ain have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Ain have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Ain
2
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 5, Al Nasr have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al Ain 2-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Al Nasr?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Ain 55%, Al Nasr 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Ain and 70% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al Ain's games and 65% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Ain vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Ain's matches and 70% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al Ain and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain and Al Nasr finished level at 1-1 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.59 xG and Al Nasr 1.02 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.23 / defence 0.75 against Al Nasr attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 51% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 24%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 66%, Al Nasr 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Nasr's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.