Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium plays host to Dibba Al-Fujairah versus Al Nasr in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dibba Al-Fujairah have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 5L across 8 games at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium this term (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Nasr's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1.40 for Al Nasr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dibba Al-Fujairah register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Al Nasr in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Dibba Al-Fujairah 2W, Al Nasr 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dibba Al-Fujairah half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al-Fujairah 62% and Al Nasr 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56% | Al Nasr 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.09 xG and Al Nasr 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.867 / defence 1.070 | Al Nasr attack 0.938 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.473. Data: 16 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 43 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 46%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Al Nasr 2.17. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 75% | Al Nasr 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.09 / Al Nasr 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.867 / def 1.070 | Al Nasr attack 0.938 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al Nasr xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 28% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr?
Record (3 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 2W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 0W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack at 0.87x the league average against Al Nasr's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.94x) against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 16/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
28%
3.57
26%
3.85
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.57
1.48
Al Nasr xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
6%
15.63
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.48 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Dibba Al-Fujairah have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 3W 3D 10L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr's form line: 4W 7D 5L from 16 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Nasr in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dibba Al-Fujairah
2
Draws
0
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 2, Al Nasr have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 71% for Al Nasr — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 57% (Al Nasr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 71% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's matches and 57% of Al Nasr's.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr finished level at 1-1 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.09 xG and Al Nasr 1.48 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Al Nasr attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 16/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 28% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 46%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%, Al Nasr 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.