Khorfakkan 0-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Khorfakkan welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record: 1W 2D 6L from 9 road trips in Pro League this season (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Khorfakkan) versus 1.00 (Dibba Al-Fujairah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Khorfakkan, 2 for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Khorfakkan trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 61% and Dibba Al-Fujairah 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 67% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.26 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.043 / defence 1.405 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.631 / defence 1.563. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.410. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.563 — this is suppressing Khorfakkan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Khorfakkan games / 18 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 60% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 20%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Khorfakkan (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 80% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 60% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Khorfakkan 2.26 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.043 / def 1.405 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.631 / def 1.563 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Khorfakkan 0 - 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 60% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (3 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 2W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 1.04x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
60%
1.66
20%
5.10
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.51
1.25
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.66
60%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
10%
9.62
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
2%
47.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.25 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 5W 4D 9L from 18 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 11L across 18 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.06 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah on 0.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 1W 3D 5L from 9 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.94 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Khorfakkan's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 0.67 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
2
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Khorfakkan 0-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Khorfakkan at 78%, Dibba Al-Fujairah at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Khorfakkan and 56% for Dibba Al-Fujairah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dibba Al-Fujairah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Khorfakkan's games and 56% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Khorfakkan's matches and 56% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's.
Do Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khorfakkan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan and Dibba Al-Fujairah finished level at 0-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.26 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.25 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khorfakkan fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Dibba Al-Fujairah landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.04 / defence 1.41 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.63 / defence 1.56, drawn from 44/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 60% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 20%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.06 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.