🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Dibba Al-Fujairah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Khorfakkan welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season.

Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record: 1W 2D 6L from 9 road trips in Pro League this season (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Khorfakkan) versus 1.00 (Dibba Al-Fujairah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Khorfakkan, 2 for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Khorfakkan trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 61% and Dibba Al-Fujairah 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 67% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.26 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.043 / defence 1.405 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.631 / defence 1.563. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.410. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.563 — this is suppressing Khorfakkan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Khorfakkan games / 18 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 60% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 20%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Khorfakkan (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 80% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 56% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights