🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al-Jazira. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Jazira's home record at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Jazira, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 4 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Jazira trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 49% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 49% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.56 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.030 / defence 0.893 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.860 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.395. Data: 41 Al-Jazira games / 41 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.85. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Jazira as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 30% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights