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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al Wahda FC.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al Wahda FC to Al Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 8W 1D 1L at Al Rashid Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Rashid Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al Wahda FC 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56% | Al Wahda FC 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.93 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.533 / defence 0.741 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.009 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.464. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.533 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 43 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% | Draw 22% | Al Wahda FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Al Wahda FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30% | Al Wahda FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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