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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Sharjah FC welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Sharjah FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 0D 7L at Sharjah Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 1W 2D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.62 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sharjah FC at 1.00 PPG versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sharjah FC have won 2, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Sharjah FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Sharjah FC trading profile (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 53% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 53% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.92 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.993 / defence 1.214 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.620 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.464. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Sharjah FC games / 17 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 56% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 21%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 50% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%.

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