Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al-Jazira in Pro League (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Jazira's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Al-Jazira, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2025, ended Al-Jazira 1–1 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Jazira trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 49% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 49% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.56 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.030 / defence 0.893 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.860 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.395. Data: built from Al-Jazira's last 41 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 41.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.06 | Draw 3.95 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.83. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Jazira as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Jazira 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 16 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al-Jazira 1.56 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.030 / def 0.893 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.860 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba FAQs
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Jazira 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 16) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Jazira's last 41 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
49%
2.06
25%
3.95
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.63
1.07
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.07 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 16W 11D 14L from 41 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 17L across 41 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.44 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 9W 3D 8L from their last 20 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 7W 5D 8L across their last 20 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.32 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 61%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al-Jazira (Home) vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Form FAQs
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 games (1.44 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-4 Al-Jazira.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
4
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Jazira have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 35%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Jazira) and 60% (Al-Ittihad Kalba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Jazira have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Jazira's matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 75% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.56 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.07 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 49% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 26%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 49%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.44 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.