Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba host Ajman at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajman stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad Kalba at 0.90 PPG versus Ajman's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 4 for Ajman and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% versus Ajman 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Ajman 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 xG and Ajman 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.948 / defence 1.121 | Ajman attack 0.747 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.375. Data: 40 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 40 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 27% | Ajman 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Ajman 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Ajman 20%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 27% | Ajman 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 / Ajman 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.948 / def 1.121 | Ajman attack 0.747 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ajman xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 3 Ajman.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 41% chance of winning, Ajman a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 4W | Draws 1 | Ajman 4W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Ajman (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 0.95x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.71
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.48
1.15
Ajman xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.15 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 12W 12D 16L from 40 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 21L across 40 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.20 PPG, Ajman on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad Kalba have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.20 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Ajman have gone 13W 6D 21L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Ajman away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.11 PPG; Ajman away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 4, Ajman have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ajman see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 58%, Ajman 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 42% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Ajman in 37%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 32% of games; Ajman in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 32% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 42% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Ajman cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 xG and Ajman 1.15 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ajman outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Ajman attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% | Draw 27% | Ajman 32%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%, Ajman 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.20 PPG, Ajman 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.