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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Al-Ittihad Kalba welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ittihad Kalba at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dibba Al-Fujairah — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 0 for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% and Dibba Al-Fujairah 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.70 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.922 / defence 1.156 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.595 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.511. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 15 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.35. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Al-Ittihad Kalba dominate the H2H record, yet Dibba Al-Fujairah are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dibba Al-Fujairah (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 43% BTTS from recent games.

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