Al Bataeh 1-1 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Dhafra at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Bataeh face Al-Dhafra.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Bataeh welcome Al-Dhafra to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Friday 13 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Bataeh stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Bataeh at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Dhafra — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

On the road, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 away fixtures (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Bataeh 0.90 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Bataeh, 1 for Al-Dhafra and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Al Bataeh 1–3 Al-Dhafra — a Al-Dhafra win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Bataeh trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Dhafra trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 60% and Al-Dhafra 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 53% | Al-Dhafra 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.55 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.819 / defence 1.280 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.924 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.406. Al-Dhafra's defence rating of 1.472 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Bataeh's projected output up. Al Bataeh's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Dhafra's projected output up. Data: built from Al Bataeh's last 41 games and Al-Dhafra's last 15.

Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Dhafra 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.78 | Draw 4.29 | Al-Dhafra 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Dhafra at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Dhafra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Al-Dhafra's last 7 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Bataeh 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Dhafra 57% (last 7 away games).

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