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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Dhafra vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Dhafra welcome Khorfakkan to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 February 2026 at 13:25 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Dhafra — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Dhafra have gone 4W 0D 3L this season (7 games, 1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Khorfakkan away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Dhafra at 1.00 PPG versus Khorfakkan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Dhafra, 3 for Khorfakkan and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with Al-Dhafra winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al-Dhafra in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 57% versus Khorfakkan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 57% | Khorfakkan 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.95 xG and Khorfakkan 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.848 / defence 1.111 | Khorfakkan attack 0.877 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.372. Data: 14 Al-Dhafra games / 40 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 27% | Draw 28% | Khorfakkan 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Khorfakkan 2.17. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 57% | Khorfakkan 40%.

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