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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 7 October 2023

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Saturday 7 October 2023. Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice led the list at 81% in the Ekstraklasa. The shortlist runs from 81% down to 61%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

Ligue 2 supplies four of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, twelve landed the under 2.5 goals market — 60%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Poland 81%

✓ Under 2.5 81% BTTS No 72% Zaglebie Lubin Clean Sheet 54%

Ligue 2 · France 76%

Under 2.5 76% BTTS No 69%

Serie A · Brazil 74%

Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 66%

Ligue 2 · France 73%

Under 2.5 73% BTTS No 64%

League One · England 72%

✓ Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 63%

Championship · England 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 59%

Serie B · Italy 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 58%

League Two · England 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Ligue 2 · France 66%

Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 62%

#10

Ligue 2 · France 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 67% ✓ Saint Etienne Clean Sheet 58%

#11

Ligue 2 · France 65%

✓ Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 58%

#12

Thai League 1 · Thailand 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 56%

#13

Serie B · Italy 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 53%

#14

Ekstraklasa · Poland 64%

Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#15

Premier League · Ukraine 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#16

Allsvenskan · Sweden 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#17

Ligue 2 · France 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#18

Serie B · Italy 62%

#19

Premier League · Ukraine 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#20

Serie B · Italy 61%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 7 October 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice at 81% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.