AIK Stockholm 1-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AIK Stockholm face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Mjallby AIF travel to Friends Arena to take on AIK Stockholm in Allsvenskan (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, AIK Stockholm stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AIK Stockholm at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Mjallby AIF have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, AIK Stockholm have won 1, Mjallby AIF 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2023, ended AIK Stockholm 0–0 Mjallby AIF — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 49% versus Mjallby AIF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 47% | Mjallby AIF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.012 / defence 0.791 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.094 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.239. Mjallby AIF bring a tight defence (rating 0.748, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling AIK Stockholm's projected output down. AIK Stockholm have a tight defence (rating 0.791), which is pulling Mjallby AIF's projected output down. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 55 games and Mjallby AIF's last 55.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 36% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 35%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.80 | Draw 3.40 | Mjallby AIF 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 26 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 36% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG AIK Stockholm 1.09 / Mjallby AIF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.012 / def 0.791 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.094 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Mjallby AIF xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 36% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.01x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 55 games and Mjallby AIF's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.40
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.16
1.07
Mjallby AIF xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.07 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 15D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.40 PPG from 55 outings (21W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.42 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 12W 9D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.63 points per game from their last 27 away games (13W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.07 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs Mjallby AIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Mjallby AIF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.67 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.63 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 16 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2026: AIK Stockholm 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — AIK Stockholm 37% BTTS, Mjallby AIF 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for AIK Stockholm and 26% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 48%; Mjallby AIF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 22% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 26% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 56% of Mjallby AIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Mjallby AIF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.07 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.01 / defence 0.79 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.09 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 36% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 35%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, Mjallby AIF 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.42 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.