Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vorskla Poltava make the trip to Stadion Kovalivka to face Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 24 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kolos Kovalivka have collected 1.14 PPG across 7 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 3L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kolos Kovalivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Kovalivka, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 4W 3D 1L across 8 Premier League outings this term — 1.88 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.88 per game and conceding 0.88. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On a straight form reading, Vorskla Poltava are the stronger side — 0.74 PPG clear of the hosts (1.88 vs 1.14). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Kolos Kovalivka half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 29% versus Vorskla Poltava 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 29% | Vorskla Poltava 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.767 / defence 1.334 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.748 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.160. Kolos Kovalivka's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Kolos Kovalivka games / 8 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 41%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Vorskla Poltava 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kolos Kovalivka 50% | Vorskla Poltava 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Kovalivka • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 / Vorskla Poltava 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.767 / def 1.334 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.748 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Vorskla Poltava xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stadion Kovalivka.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kovalivka.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 30% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 0.88 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.77) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.75x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
30%
3.38
30%
3.36
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.10
1.16
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.16 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 2W 2D 3L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kolos Kovalivka.
Attack vs Defence
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.86 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Vorskla Poltava in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Early Season
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
2
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 29%, Vorskla Poltava 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Kolos Kovalivka and 29% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 43%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 43% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 29% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vorskla Poltava edge out Kolos Kovalivka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 at Stadion Kovalivka, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.16 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kolos Kovalivka fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.77 / defence 1.33 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 41%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 29%, Vorskla Poltava 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Vorskla Poltava managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.