Chornomorets 1-1 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inhulets make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 27 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 5L from 8 games (0.62 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 2.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.62 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Premier League appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
Inhulets have collected 0.88 PPG across 8 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Inhulets have posted 1W 0D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.62 vs 0.88 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Inhulets — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 50% versus Inhulets 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chornomorets 100% | Inhulets 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.12 xG and Inhulets 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.857 / defence 1.466 | Inhulets attack 0.706 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.270. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Chornomorets games / 8 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 32% | Draw 27% | Inhulets 41%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Inhulets 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Inhulets as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 33% | Inhulets 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 32% | Draw 27% | Inhulets 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Chornomorets 1.12 / Inhulets 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.857 / def 1.466 | Inhulets attack 0.706 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Inhulets xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Inhulets kick off?
Chornomorets vs Inhulets kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Chornomorets 1 - 1 Inhulets.
Where is Chornomorets vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Inhulets part of?
Chornomorets vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 32% chance of winning, Inhulets a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chornomorets and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Inhulets in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 2.62 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Inhulets (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.86x the league average against Inhulets's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.71x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.67
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.43
1.31
Inhulets xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.31 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 2D 5L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.62 PPG for Chornomorets against 0.88 for Inhulets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chornomorets's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inhulets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Inhulets away?
Inhulets's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.33 PPG; Inhulets away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
2
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Inhulets?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Inhulets have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Inhulets 1-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Inhulets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Chornomorets) and 33% (Inhulets) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Chornomorets and 33% for Inhulets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 67% of games; Inhulets in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 33% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Chornomorets's matches and 33% of Inhulets's.
Do Chornomorets and Inhulets tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chornomorets and Inhulets share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets and Inhulets finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.12 xG and Inhulets 1.31 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.86 / defence 1.47 against Inhulets attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 32% | Draw 27% | Inhulets 41%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 100%, Inhulets 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Inhulets's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.62 PPG, Inhulets 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.