FC Kharkiv 0-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Kryvbas KR travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on FC Kharkiv in Premier League (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Kharkiv stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

FC Kharkiv's home record over their last 7 home games: 3W 2D 2L (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Kryvbas KR — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Kharkiv at 1.60 PPG versus Kryvbas KR's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Kryvbas KR have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for FC Kharkiv.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended FC Kharkiv 0–2 Kryvbas KR — a Kryvbas KR win.

Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Data

FC Kharkiv trading profile (last 18 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Kryvbas KR trading profile (last 18 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 44% versus Kryvbas KR 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 22% | Kryvbas KR 61%). Note also that Kryvbas KR surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while FC Kharkiv recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.16 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.842 / defence 1.083 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.048 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.274. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 15 games and Kryvbas KR's last 46.

Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 30% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.33 | Draw 3.79 | Kryvbas KR 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Kryvbas KR 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 29% (last 7 home games) | Kryvbas KR 60% (last 10 away games).

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