Karpaty 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Karpaty face LNZ Cherkasy.

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Full Analysis

Ukraina Stadium plays host to Karpaty versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Karpaty's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Karpaty have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

LNZ Cherkasy away from home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Karpaty edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2025, ended Karpaty 1–0 LNZ Cherkasy — a Karpaty win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Karpaty half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karpaty 42% versus LNZ Cherkasy 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Karpaty 49% | LNZ Cherkasy 31%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Karpaty surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while LNZ Cherkasy have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 0.93 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 1.077 / defence 0.875 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.178 / defence 0.660. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.274. LNZ Cherkasy bring a tight defence (rating 0.660, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Karpaty's projected output down. Data: built from Karpaty's last 55 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 55.

Result probabilities: Karpaty 26% | Draw 29% | LNZ Cherkasy 45%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 3.87 | Draw 3.42 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.23. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karpaty 50% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 30% (last 10 away games).

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