Kryvbas KR 2-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kryvbas KR face LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Kryvbas KR (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.75 PPG across their last 4 games: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 25% versus LNZ Cherkasy 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 25% | LNZ Cherkasy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.17 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.008 / defence 0.916 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.122 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.203. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 32 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 38%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.89 | Draw 3.62 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 30% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 50% (last 4 games).
The Poisson model's sample (Kryvbas KR 32 games, LNZ Cherkasy 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Kryvbas KR 1.17 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.008 / def 0.916 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.122 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.24
LNZ Cherkasy xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy FAQs
What time does Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR 2 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Premier League fixture (matchday 3) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 35% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.01) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (1.12x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Kryvbas KR's last 32 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.62
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.41
1.24
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.24 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 0D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 1.75 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Kryvbas KR (Home) vs LNZ Cherkasy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy Form FAQs
What form are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 Kryvbas KR on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 25%, LNZ Cherkasy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Kryvbas KR) and 50% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 75% of LNZ Cherkasy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.17 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 38%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kryvbas KR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 25%, LNZ Cherkasy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.50 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.