Zorya Luhansk 1-3 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Livyi Bereh plays host to Zorya Luhansk versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Zorya Luhansk have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kryvbas KR (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Zorya Luhansk's 2.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Kryvbas KR's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Zorya Luhansk, 1 for Kryvbas KR and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Zorya Luhansk 0–1 Kryvbas KR — a Kryvbas KR win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Zorya Luhansk half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 48% versus Kryvbas KR 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 71% | Kryvbas KR 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.29 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.252 / defence 0.916 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.771 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.247. Zorya Luhansk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.252 — their 1.29 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Kryvbas KR's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Zorya Luhansk's last 31 games and Kryvbas KR's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 46% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 26%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.18 | Draw 3.50 | Kryvbas KR 3.92. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zorya Luhansk at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zorya Luhansk's last 10 home games and Kryvbas KR's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zorya Luhansk 50% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 20% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Zorya Luhansk 31 games, Kryvbas KR 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 46% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.29 / Kryvbas KR 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.252 / def 0.916 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.771 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Kryvbas KR xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR?
Zorya Luhansk 1 - 3 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 2) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 46% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.25) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.77x) against Zorya Luhansk's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Zorya Luhansk's last 31 games and Kryvbas KR's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.50
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.17
0.88
Kryvbas KR xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.88 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Zorya Luhansk have picked up 2.16 PPG on a 21W 4D 6L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 12W 5D 14L from 31 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Zorya Luhansk are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kryvbas KR.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zorya Luhansk have posted 2.40 PPG from their last 15 home games (11W 3D 1L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 3D 8L from their last 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.84 scored and 1.00 conceded. Zorya Luhansk's scoring rate against Kryvbas KR's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR in 29%.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Kryvbas KR in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Zorya Luhansk (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zorya Luhansk
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 21W 4D 6L in their last 31 games (2.16 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 12W 5D 14L in their last 31 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 2.40 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kryvbas KR have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won Kryvbas KR 3-0 Zorya Luhansk on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zorya Luhansk have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Zorya Luhansk
2
Draws
7
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Zorya Luhansk have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Zorya Luhansk 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 67%, Kryvbas KR 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Zorya Luhansk) and 33% (Kryvbas KR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 33% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Zorya Luhansk's matches and 33% of Kryvbas KR's.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 47% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zorya Luhansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Zorya Luhansk 1-3 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.29 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.88 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.77 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 46% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 26%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Kryvbas KR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 71%, Kryvbas KR 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Kryvbas KR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.