Polessya 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Polessya face Ruh Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tsentralnyi Stadion plays host to Polessya versus Ruh Lviv in Premier League (matchday 3). Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Polessya have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ruh Lviv's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.05 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.863 / defence 1.150 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.891 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.228. Data: built from Polessya's last 2 games and Ruh Lviv's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Polessya 31% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 41%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.26 | Draw 3.55 | Ruh Lviv 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Polessya 2 games, Ruh Lviv 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 3 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 31% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Polessya 1.05 / Ruh Lviv 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.863 / def 1.150 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.891 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Ruh Lviv xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Polessya vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Polessya vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Polessya 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Polessya vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 3) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 31% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Polessya and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Polessya vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Polessya's attack rating (0.86) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.89x) against Polessya's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 2 games and Ruh Lviv's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.55
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.30
1.26
Ruh Lviv xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Polessya and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Polessya and 1.26 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Polessya come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Polessya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Polessya are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Ruh Lviv's attacking output running into Polessya's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv in 100%.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Polessya (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Polessya vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Polessya or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Polessya and Ruh Lviv, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Polessya have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Polessya
2
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2026: Polessya 2-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and Ruh Lviv matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Polessya's games and 100% of Ruh Lviv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Polessya and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Polessya's matches and 100% of Ruh Lviv's.
Do Polessya and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Polessya's recent matches and 100% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Polessya 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Polessya 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.05 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.26 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Polessya fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 31% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 41%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 50%, Ruh Lviv 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Polessya managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruh Lviv managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.