Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Oleksandria to Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Monday 14 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Oleksandria stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Oleksandria's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1 for Oleksandria and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 Oleksandria — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 53% versus Oleksandria 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 62% | Oleksandria 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.22 xG and Oleksandria 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.152 / defence 0.843 | Oleksandria attack 0.954 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.174. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 32 games and Oleksandria's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 43% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 28%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.35 | Draw 3.45 | Oleksandria 3.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Shakhtar Donetsk 32 games, Oleksandria 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Monday 14 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 43% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.22 / Oleksandria 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.152 / def 0.843 | Oleksandria attack 0.954 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Oleksandria xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 14 August 2023 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria?
Shakhtar Donetsk 2 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 3) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 43% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.15) and Oleksandria's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 32 games and Oleksandria's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.45
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.17
0.94
Oleksandria xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.94 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 32 games, going 23W 7D 2L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (12W 14D 6L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 12W 3D 0L across their last 15 home games, a 2.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 15 away games (4W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.38 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Oleksandria in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Oleksandria
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
Oleksandria
Early Season
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 23W 7D 2L in their last 32 games (2.38 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 12W 14D 6L in their last 32 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Oleksandria away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.60 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Feb 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won Oleksandria 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Oleksandria?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Oleksandria have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Oleksandria 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Oleksandria?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 40%, Oleksandria 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 47% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Oleksandria in 40%; Oleksandria in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shakhtar Donetsk and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 60% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shakhtar Donetsk and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 47% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Oleksandria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 53% of Oleksandria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Oleksandria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Oleksandria 2-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.22 xG and Oleksandria 0.94 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against Oleksandria attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 43% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 28%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 62%, Oleksandria 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.