LNZ Cherkasy 1-2 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as LNZ Cherkasy face Polessya.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Polessya travel to Cherkasy Arena to take on LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Friday 18 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 5 games, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%).
Polessya — last 3 games: 1W 0D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (LNZ Cherkasy) versus 1.00 (Polessya). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Polessya trading profile (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 0% of LNZ Cherkasy's games and 33% of Polessya's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Polessya 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.91 xG and Polessya 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.719 / defence 1.220 | Polessya attack 0.963 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.175. LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Polessya's projected output up. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 3 games and Polessya's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 25% | Draw 27% | Polessya 48%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 4.06 | Draw 3.64 | Polessya 2.09. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (LNZ Cherkasy's last 5 games and Polessya's last 3 games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 40% (last 5 games) | Polessya 33% (last 3 games).
The Poisson model's sample (LNZ Cherkasy 3 games, Polessya 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 4 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 25% | Draw 27% | Polessya 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.91 / Polessya 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.719 / def 1.220 | Polessya attack 0.963 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Polessya (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Polessya xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 18 August 2023 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 2 Polessya.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 4) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 25% chance of winning, Polessya a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 3 games and Polessya's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
25%
4.06
27%
3.64
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.29
1.38
Polessya xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
6%
16.15
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.0 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.38 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L in the last five.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.00 PPG, Polessya on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Polessya
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Polessya
Early Season
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Polessya have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Polessya in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Polessya have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Polessya see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — LNZ Cherkasy 0% BTTS, Polessya 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for LNZ Cherkasy and 33% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Polessya in 33%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 67% of games; Polessya in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 33% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 33% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 33% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out LNZ Cherkasy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-2 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.91 xG and Polessya 1.38 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.72 / defence 1.22 against Polessya attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 25% | Draw 27% | Polessya 48%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 33%, Polessya 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.00 PPG, Polessya 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Polessya scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.